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Everyone is biased. Everyone has distortions of perception.
Imagine that you are a scout watching two players at a game. Shortly before the game, you find out that one of the players is being closely watched by Bayern Munich. How do you think your perception of the player will change?
In the Juventus-Lecce game, there is contact in the penalty area shortly before the end and a Juventus player goes down. An outcry from the fans and the bench. Penalty? As a referee, can you make the decision within a second regardless of the status of both teams?
Why do goalkeepers jump excessively to the side when taking a penalty, even though statistically they have the same chances in the middle of the goal?
Hierachies have a distorting effect on perceptions and decisions
What is the probability that two or more people in a room of 23 people have their birthday on the same day?
Cognitive distortions
Cognitive bias is a fascinating phenomenon in human psychology that strongly influences our perception and interpretation of the world around us. A cognitive bias is a systematic error in thinking and perception. Although we normally assume that our perception is objective, we are actually susceptible to a variety of biases that affect our judgment and decision-making.
A cognitive bias is an error programmed into our brain, so to speak. These biases have advantages and disadvantages and influence our perception and decision-making processes.
Our brain protects itself from overload. It applies rules of thumb for perceptions, which are shortcuts and save memory in our brain. Once programmed, it is difficult to break away and allow new, independent and neutral perceptions.
People often don't see what they don't know or don't expect
As a game analyst, I have experienced how powerful new and innovative tactical concepts can be and how easily and quickly they can create competitive advantages. At the same time, however, I have also seen how difficult it is for opponents to even recognize these new patterns. People often don't see things that they don't know or that they can't explain. As a result, innovations remain hidden for a long time. It takes several years before an innovation is incorporated into coaches training. This is because it must first be discovered, understood, validated, documented and trained.
You only see what you know
Goalkeepers, by the way, prefer to jump to the side when taking a penalty because standing in the middle looks stupid and too passive. They value their reputation or status more than the actual chance of saving the penalty.
Cognitive Bias
I found a source online with over 150 different perception biases.
Cognitive distortions can be divided into four categories:
Filtering information Humans have to process countless amounts of information every day.
In order not to overheat, our brain categorizes every piece of information into important (0.001%) and unimportant (99.999%) within milliseconds. The important is stored in the brain, the unimportant is forgotten. If we did not do this, we would be overwhelmed by the flood of information and impressions and would not even get out of bed in the morning.
Creating meaning
Humans are not comfortable with uncertainty. We prefer to sleep in a cave rather than out in the open. Uncertainties also arise when there are gaps in information chains. Our brain eliminates the uncertainty and automatically fills these gaps with what we think we know. These filling elements consist of our beliefs, which are repeatedly used as filling material like built-in modules.
Increase speed
Speed is essential for survival in order to avoid being eaten by the sabre-toothed tiger. We are limited by time and information, but that must not stop us from taking action. With each new piece of information, we start looking for possible applications to make decisions based on the new information. A new insight like “The earth is round” can change an entire world view.
Remembering Memory
We cannot remember everything, so we have to store information efficiently or discard it. The information that ensures our survival is stored as a priority. Then only information that we think will be useful to us in the future.
Result versus performance probably contains the greatest potential for distortion of perception
Distortions of perception with examples:
Confirmation bias
The tendency to seek, interpret and remember information that confirms our existing beliefs while ignoring or devaluing contradictory evidence.
Practical examples:
We believe, use and reinforce data, especially when it supports or confirms our personal beliefs
We rarely look for information that challenges or refutes our beliefs
We use 1% events to question the whole system and legitimize our critical stance
A fan is so emotionally attached to his club that he will tend to gloss over a well-deserved victory of his team
Managers, coaches or players attribute their successes to their own factors/skills and their failures to external factors such as third parties, bad luck or circumstances. This helps them to protect their self-esteem by maintaining a positive image and avoiding feelings of failure. The downside is that this bias can prevent them from taking responsibility for their own mistakes and improving.
It is particularly difficult for market leaders to react to disruptions in the market. After many years of boom times, they cannot imagine that their time could come to an end. They are often unable to change or even cannibalize themselves. They often bury their heads in the sand for too long, until it may be too late.
Butterflies in your stomach? The more emotions you feel about something, the more your thoughts about it are not rational, but actively filtered.
Anchor effect
The tendency to focus too much on a particular piece of information or number (the “anchor”) and to base subsequent decisions on it, even if the anchor is irrelevant or incorrect.
Practical examples:
There are free visual lessons at the market or bazaar. In negotiations, the first price mentioned influences the outcome. Even if the price is still too high, the customer may feel they are getting a bargain if the dealer lowers the price, even though it is still above what the item is really worth. This mechanism is very common in sales.
If a player makes a controversial move and it is exploited by the media, this could serve as an anchor for subsequent decisions. The environment could evaluate the player more critically, even if this is no longer justified.
Referees punish players' actions more severely if their perception is shaped by previous unfair actions by the player.
A scout overestimates the player or overlooks weaknesses if a skill is extremely obvious (e.g. speed) or if he personally likes it particularly well
After a defeat, coaches and players tend to be overly inclined to change things,
After all, they have lost and have to change something, right?
Availability heuristic
The tendency to overestimate the probability of an event due to high visibility and attention. Examples that we remember easily seem more likely.
Practical examples:
After media reports about an airplane crash, people tend to estimate the probability as higher than it actually is statistically. The availability of these dramatic events in our memory reinforces our impression
The probability of dying in a shark attack is overestimated by dramatic news. People are ten times more likely to die from falling coconuts. As these events rarely make the news, this danger is underestimated
A striker who scores a lot of goals in a season is immediately in many scouts' notebooks. Without the long-term development often being considered and analyzed. Even a single goal in a final or a few good performances in an important competition tend to be overestimated.
Short-term developments are often overestimated. Long-term developments are often underestimated.
When refereeing or VAR decisions in a match are hotly debated and receive a lot of media coverage, fans tend to overestimate the frequency of mistakes. The media availability of these controversial decisions influences the perception of the referee's or VAR's performance, even if practically all decisions are correct.
Effects of perceptual distortions:
Wrong decisions: Perceptual biases can cause us to make inappropriate decisions based on distorted information or false assumptions.
Conflicts: Misunderstandings and conflicts can arise when different people have different interpretations of the same situation due to their own perceptual distortions.
Impaired judgment: Our ability to make objective and rational judgments can be impaired by perceptual distortions, which can lead to ineffective problem solving and poor decisions.
Self-fulfilling prophecies: When people have lower expectations or are treated unfairly due to bias or prejudice, they may internalize these expectations and behave accordingly. This can lead to certain groups actually performing worse, further reinforcing the biases.
And by the way: what is the probability that two or more people in a school class of 23 have their birthday on the same day? Because we only have 23 people but 365 days, we assume a low probability. The result can be calculated using the so-called birthday paradox formula.
where n is the number of people in the room (in this case 23).
The result is therefore 50.73%.
Strategies for overcoming perceptual distortions:
Creating awareness: By being aware of the different types of perceptual biases
Establish critical thinking as a culture. Foster a culture where you can offer different and critical opinions with “impunity”. Even if it's just a gut feeling. Because if the concerns were evident, there would be no need to express them :-)
Look for different perspectives to broaden your understanding. Actively seek feedback.
Use different sources and don't rely on just one
Make conscious use of mentoring or coaching for your personal development
Educate yourself and be inspired by new and innovative topics.
Consciously seek feedback and perspectives from people outside your system.
Form trusting networks with people in the same function and share your experiences and best practices with each other
Use data and facts as an additional perspective for decisions
Whether wine, applicants or players. Taste blind and remove the names and labels and only look at the content.
Place a symbol/object at your workstation that visually reminds you to keep questioning.
Watch the Dr. House series :-)
Do not exaggerate these countermeasures, but apply them consciously and with common sense
Perception errors in scouting
Perception errors can also sabotage decisions in scouting and lead to talented players being overlooked or others being favored. the following measures are recommended to combat this:
Heterogeneous scouting team: put together a scouting team that represents different backgrounds and experiences. A variety of perspectives can help to recognize and counteract prejudices
Encourage diversity of opinion and constructive interaction
It is worth encouraging different opinions within a group and practising constructive way of dealing with them on an ongoing basis. If everyone is of the same opinion, this can mean that the group is on the right track. But it may also mean that harmony and conflict avoidance are more important than the generation of new ideas and change. And this gradually makes the group inflexible and stupid. I believe that an open diversity of opinions and, above all, a positive and constructive approach to differences of opinion, I see as a sign of a strong group that has a healthy culture of exchange and conflict.
“It is not enough to allow other opinions. We must also encourage them.” Robert F. Kennedy
Clear decision criteria: Define clear criteria: Establish clear and objective criteria for evaluating players. These criteria should focus on performance, ability and potential
.
Data-driven approach: Use data and statistics as a basis for your scouting process. Analyze a player's performance metrics to make informed decisions.
Video scouting: Avoid making a judgment based solely on highlight videos, as every other player looks like the new Messi and these videos are misleading.
At the end of the day, it's all about making good decisions with a good mix of expert opinion, gut feeling and data.
Data helps to combat distortions of perception
Data enables an objective assessment of situations. Data analysis can reveal patterns and trends that may not be apparent at first glance. Data can counteract stereotypes and biases by providing empirical evidence that refutes preconceived notions.
Using data or looking at data serves as an additional perspective on things. Particularly in highly competitive systems with dominant power structures, it is difficult to hold different opinions or to express unpleasant feelings. This is where data can help with its neutral view of things. Basically, you should establish a culture of data consultation and ask yourself before every important decision: What does the data say?
Data has no favorite teams or favorite players
Data may or may not confirm your perception. This is an added value in both cases. Either it confirms your opinion or it forces you to look at things more carefully.
Data analysis is often accused of taking the beauty and magic out of football. I believe the opposite is true. A better understanding of the game leads to a greater appreciation of its beauty.
Check out our lead article who is read 900 times per month: Data Analytics in Football
The smart and successful use of data goes far beyond the mere purchase of standardized tools. We have many years of experience in the areas of football coaching, match development, match analysis and data scouting. We also bring expertise in business innovation, design thinking and product development to the table.
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